On the exit ramp...

Thoughts on the divisional round and the upcoming conference championships...

• I have seem to lost Mercury Morris' cell number, does anyone have it? I just wanted to let him know the Pats were getting off the highway and are nearing his neighborhood. I really don't like him.
• The Jags played really well on Saturday, but their receivers needed to catch a few more balls in the second half. Dennis Northcutt anyone?
• Is anyone else loving the Patriots "half time adjustments?" In Bill we trust.
• Did anyone else see how upset Wes Welker got after dropping that ball? You would have thought we were down by 11. I love it.
  
• Asante played pretty poorly. David Garrard was picking on him all night.
  
• The Green Bay game really was something to watch. Although it turned out to be kind of a blowout, it was my 2nd favorite game of the weekend. Football in the snow is an amazing thing, my thanks to Favre for making it special on Saturday.
• The Seahawks must have read my predictions, they gave up out there.
  
• So, all those people who thought the Cowboys would be the team to upset New England are feeling really smart this week. Of course I am surprised at how well the Giants are playing, but the real shock was the passive approach by Dallas. They were sleepwalking in the second half.
• You have to love Jerry Jones and his guest sideline appearance at the end of the game. I am sure he really calmed down the players.
• Ladies and Gentlemen, Eli Manning has turned the corner. I think we are going to see more of this from him.
• Ok, I can't keep a straight face. No way.
  
• T.O.?????????? Tears??????????? Team????????
• With the exception of New England there isn't a more talented team than San Diego. Position-by-position they are stacked both offensively and defensively. Even with the back ups they still have solid players out there.
• What was Manning doing at the end of the game? That was an awful pass to Dallas Clark to end the game.
  
• I have the same feeling as when the Indians beat the Yankees this fall to advance to the ALCS. I wanted Red Sox-Yankees Armageddon, I wanted Patriots-Colts.
• I hate the Chargers. *(See initial column)
• I have been about .500 on my predictions so far, but my champion is still intact. I think Green Bay wins easily, and New England wins a tight one. I am not sleeping on San Diego folks, they are good, just not ready to beat a healthy Patriots team at Gillette.

Don't fret, feasting on San Diego will be just as satisfying.

2008 Has Beens Preview

Tufts Alumni have traditionally stayed in shape. In the past they could always be counted on for the occasional scare at the Alumni Run each Fall, and perhaps a thought or two at an indoor meet as an unattached runner. In fact, Alumni Run 2002 saw the Alumni beat the undergraduate team at what is now now known as the Alumni Massacre. As a member of that under-manned team I thought it was a freak occurrence. However, I was wrong. It seems as though the fruits of Tufts XC recruiting haul over the past 5-10 years are starting to ripen for a new team, Team Alumni. Never before has the mid-winter classic, the Has Beens Mile been, met with such anticipation. Why, you ask? Because this time, the Alumni have the goods. This time the Alumni are the balls. This time the Alumni just might be better than the actual team.

On the heels of our victory at the 2007 Alumni Run, we are ushering in a new era for Tufts. An era when even a nationally ranked team cannot defeat its own legendary past. The best part is we will be welcoming new studs each year. Talk about a premier feeder program. Recently a strong Alumni squad has added the likes of Myself, Matt Lacey, Josh Kennedy, Brian McNamara, Mike Don, and Justin Lewis.......the list goes on and on. Consider that the Alumni Track meet held this weekend that both the mile and two mile were won by Tufts Alumni. Consider that the top 3k time over the past two years was run by Matt Lacey at a BU mini Meet. Consider that of all the races this Saturday everyone will be watching the Has Beens Mile.

Now, let's get on with the predictions. I am going to write this similar to Bill Simmons and his rankings for the NFL. I will use some sports references and I may say a few ridiculous things. Please remember this is all in fun and I love you all. Really.

The "Old School" Group:

Jason Burke, Steve Kaye, Matt Lyons, Ethan Danahy, and Rod Hemingway
I know Jason Burke can probably smoke us all at the marathon any day, but I have never seen him show up to this mile. The others, although great in their day, are not ready for the speed that awaits this Saturday. I want to make sure I give credit to those who built the foundation, so to the Old School, you guys are awesome.

The Ann Arbor group

Matt Greenhawt
"Still cashing checks his body can't write, and happily ducking this event for the 10th consecutive year." - (his words)

The "I've got kids" Group:

Justin Lewis
I am not sure an explanation is necessary, but he is a legend.

The "As Clutch as Tom Brady" Group:

Matt Theodoros
I tell people all the time that there are two people I am scared to death of, one is Shug Knight the other is Gary Sheffield. In the same respect there are two people I would trust my life with if I were on the Titanic and it was sinking, Tom Brady and Matt Theodoros. You know both are coming out on top.

The "Wild-Cards" Group:

Neil Orfield and Kyle Doran
These guys would make it interesting if they actually planned to race. As far as I know Doran is chilling with the Duke Lacrosse team and Orfield is still trying to sell a Jim Rice baseball card to a blind kid on Ebay.

The "They're still smarter" Group:

John Murphy and Dan Barry
Did I just write that?

The "Righteous" Group:

Peter Bromka and Zachary Chrisco
Still celebrating the World Series victory. Check in next year.

The "What if they showed up" Group:

Ben Smith, J.R. Cruz, and Lauren Caputo
A great group of people and an amazing group of runners. Under no circumstances am I going to count out my mentors Cruz and Smith. Unless of course it comes to picking movies, in which case Ben "I think Crash is terrible" Smith might have to take back seat. (For the record Crash won the Academy Award for best picture) As for Caputo, ask JLew.

The "It's too bad he isn't healthy" Group:

Aaron Kaye
Last year's runner-up and arguably the best long-middle distance* runner in Tufts history. One thing is for sure you might want him as a roommate but you don't want him hanging around down the stretch of a mile. *(1000/1200m distances)

The "I almost forgot he graduated" Group:

Josh Kennedy
He probably won't take this seriously, but what if he did? WHAT IF HE DID?

The "I have no idea what they are capable of" Group:

Mike Don, Slams, and Mike Cummings
Each of these guys put up some times over the winter break. Each of these guys is tough and they all live together. Personally, I think they might be planning a group attack with Neil Orfield. It makes too much sense at this point. Out of the group I give Mike Don the nod, he is still a stud.

The "200m to go and you better have a gap on them" Group:

Adam Sharp and Matt Fortin
Although some will maintain that Adam Sharp's kick is not what it used to be, I am still a believer. I have seen him ghost too many people over the years to take him lightly. Fortin, yeah, you all remember him, he's fresh this weekend. The point is, don't let this thing go out in 3:30 for the 1200.

4.) The "Contenders" Group:

Andy Bonventre
Having made huge strides (literally and figuratively), Andy Bons is ready to compete with some elite Alumni talent. Having run 4:24 as recent as last week, he is poised to give the top group a run. Ultimately Bons is talented enough to win this race, and capable of mixing it up at the front. His best race is a fast even split one where his exceptional speed comes into play late. Unfortunately a seasoned field and traditionally uneven race do not bode well for his victory chances. He might be the second best miler in the field, but not on this day.

3.) The "I am a 10k Runner" Group:

Nate Brigham
I had a great 2007 with the exception of October. I am definitely stronger, and with a bunch of good races on the roads more confident. I think I can win Saturday, but with the way I see the race playing out, it isn't likely. I have the strength to hang until the last lap but lack the top end speed of others. It will be interesting to see what I can do in a fresh mile, but I keep remembering 2006 when I was out maneuvered by:

2.) The "Call Me the New York Giants" Group:

Brian McNamara
No one doubts his talent, but did anyone see this coming? He has put together a good series of races for a moderate training log. Workouts and indoor air exposure are huge pluses for this law student. He might not have the most fitness, but for the mile he is money. I would pick him to win this strategic race, except for.....

1.) The Juggernaut:

Matt Lacey
I saw the 8:28 a few weeks ago, it was awesome. I know I am not ready to run that fast and neither is anyone else. He may not have some of the leg speed of Bons and Mac, but he will attempt to out grind us all. I may be the one who lasts longest with him, but ultimately that will leave me as prey for a fast finishing McNamara. Once again Lacey is the class of the Alumni team, but this time he will show it. Lacey has worked hard and he will race hard this Saturday.

Has Beens or Who's Now?

Per request I will be writing a preview for next week's Tufts Alumni Has Beens Mile. It will break down the key competitors and my prediction for the race. Although this blog currently covers the NFL playoffs I will make an exception.

Still surprised about Eli.

Wild Card Round Up

So I went 2-4 on the wild card games. Not exactly my finest weekend. However, I will say that I was a 4th and 2 away from hitting 3-4. Here are some bullet thoughts about the games:

• Still a believer in David Garrard? He may have made the key play in 4th quarter, but he played awful for most of the game. The Steelers were handing them the victory in the first half, then they remembered who they were playing. I hate to say I called the David Garrard thing because I picked them to lose (and they didn't), but he isn't that great.
• Totally surprised that Good-Eli showed up this weekend. Completely. Can he make it three weeks in a row? Probably not, but hey the Patriots did win the Superbowl in 2001-02 so anything is possible.
• Apparently all you have to do is smack San Diego around a little and they play terrible. It's too bad Tennessee isn't really ready to compete with more talented teams.
  
• I'll take Vince Young over Philip Rivers any day.
  
• I'll take David Garrard over Philip Rivers as well.
• Seattle is good and could beat Dallas. I just don't think they will go into Green Bay and beat an inspired Packer team.
• Washington has serious potential but I feel like everyone has been saying that for years.
  
• Indy beats San Diego still. New England now beats Jacksonville. Green Bay and Dallas will still advance.
  
• Still surprised about Eli.
  

NFL Playoff Predictions 2007-2008

Recent History 2001-02: New England* 2002-03: Tampa Bay* 2003-04: New England* 2004-05: New England* 2005-06: New England 2006-07: New England *=Actual Champion

NFL Playoff Predictions 2007-2008

*Disclaimer: This is really long, but a great read, so enjoy it even if you know what comes at the end. Trust me, you know.

Recent History 2001-02: New England* 2002-03: Tampa Bay* 2003-04: New England* 2004-05: New England* 2005-06: New England 2006-07: New England *=Actual Champion

Wow, time really does fly. It feels like just yesterday I was huddled in a corner at the Salemwood School writing last year's column. It feels like just yesterday that Mother Nature decided to take the winter off. It feels like just yesterday that the New England Patriots were my favorite to win the Superbowl. Oh wait, that last part really WAS yesterday.

Anyway, welcome to my 2007-2008 NFL Playoff predictions column. I am expanding my audience this year, so for some of you this may be your first experience with my NFL logic. Others have been here from the beginning, as my first predictions were from the 2001-2002 post-season, the Patriots first Superbowl victory. To give all readers some history, over the last six years I have predicted four Superbowl champions just prior to the playoffs. Although I have fallen off the past two years, I have gotten pretty good at picking some of the other games. Last year I picked the AFC's top two seeds to choke, and they did. Baltimore got beat up by Indianapolis, and San Diego played like a bunch of babies against the Patriots. In the AFC championship I was a Reche Caldwell drop away from picking an eventual Superbowl champion. I will concede that my NFC bracket was a bit screwed up, but I did have the Saints making the NFC championship game. The bottom line is, I may or may not know what I am talking about, but if you have read this far you apparently care about my opinion.

I thought I might start off this year's column with something extra special. It dawned on me that while I watch Patriot games I often say a lot of ridiculous things. However, obscenities aside I usually fall back on one particular statement: "I hate the _(insert team name)_s!!!!" I figured it might be interesting to make a list of the NFL teams that I currently like and dislike. I was surprised to find that I dislike half of the league. I really thought it would be more like 80%. I guess I have let go of a lot of anger of the past six years, as my favorite team (New England) has won a few titles. Below are the top three teams that I like (besides the Patriots) and dislike around the league.

Like:

3) San Francisco 49ers: How could I not love this team? First they traded the Patriots a 2007 fourth round pick, the one they used to trade for Randy Moss. Next they bought up all of the sub-par free agents from last year. Then they lost 11 games this year, making the first round pick they traded to New England last year the seventh overall selection in this April’s draft. Wow, never has a bad team done so much good in one year.

2) Minnesota Vikings: I love Adrian Peterson. If I were Brad Childress (the head coach) I would run him every play. He is so big and so fast, he yet he moves like at ballerina. He set the single game rushing mark, as a ROOKIE!!! A few years ago my good friend Dave Lantman, an avid college football fan, told me that Peterson would be the best running back in the league his rookie year. He said this following Peterson’s freshman year of college. Turns out he was right, and the Vikings obviously heard our conversation.

1) Cleveland Browns: Derek Anderson is the man. He has “IT” folks. Watch him play, he has guts and a good head on his shoulders. The Browns will have a tough decision to make with Brady Quinn waiting, but Anderson is their man. Also, Braylon Edwards is a stud, he really deserved his Pro-Bowl nod at wide-receiver. Their coach is a former Patriots coordinator, Romeo Crennel, and man did he deserve this year. These guys are young, they’re hungry and they play with an attitude. It is a shame that they won 10 games and didn’t make the playoffs.

Honorable Mention: Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints.

Dislike

3) Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are a talented team that continues to disappoint every year since 2000. The Patriots game was ridiculous, but their mouthing off afterwards was worse. They have no class and what’s worse, they still have Steve McNair. Two things they need to do: fire Brian Billick (done) and start Troy Smith next year. Also, it might be time to let Ray Lewis go, he is starting to annoy me.

2) Pittsburgh Steelers: I cannot stand Hines Ward and the following quote about the Patriots: “You look back in the past, and we played them in the championship games, and you kind of wonder. It seemed like they were a step ahead of us at all times.” You have to be kidding me. They take their lead from this guy? I guess the whole team is a bunch of smug, cocky, and classless individuals. Wow, the Steelers would be number one if it weren’t for the……

1) San Diego Chargers: There are so many things about the Chargers that bother me. But, LaDainian Tomlinson takes the cake. This guy claims to be all class but cannot take a loss with grace. He feels it necessary to attack other players and coaches in the media, specifically the Patriots. As the face of the franchise I associate him with the whole team. This says it all: “I think the Patriots live by the rule, ‘If you’re not cheating you’re not trying.” LT, you are awful.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans.

So, that is a rather involved look into my head. As you can see teams that pose no threat to my favorite team are my favorites. However, good teams, playoff teams are on my bad list. A full list of liked and disliked teams is available upon request. Now, let’s get down to business.

NFC

As per usual I start with the NFC. I do this because they are the weaker of the two conferences. Heard this before? The last six years I have been using the same line. By now you would think that it would be evened out, but it’s not close. The AFC is still much deeper and stronger than the NFC. In the early 90’s this wasn’t the case, but something changed. Personally, I think it was the Denver Broncos. They smacked the NFC around in two straight Super Bowls (98, 99). Despite clowning on the Patriots every time we play them I appreciate Denver’s contribution to the league. So, on with the wild card rounds. First, the Seattle Seahawks host the Washington Redskins. Having spent time in Washington this fall I can tell you the Redskins are an average football team. One week they can play the Eagles tight, the next they can get blown out 52-7 by the Patriots. They are coming to the table with a back-up quarterback and an aging coach. I think the Skins can play some defense and they run the ball well, but there is one problem for me. This team is on a serious roll, having won their last five games to get in the dance. This either backfires (see the Philadelphia Phillies 2007) or turns out awesome (see Colorado Rockies 2007). Seattle is a good team, being on the east coast nobody cares. Memo to everyone: Don’t sleep on the Seahawks. With a quarterback and a decent coach anything is possible. The defense may not be able to hold up against Dallas, but against Washington it will be enough. I pick the Seahawks 24-13. In the other wildcard (New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers) game I am not sure what to do. Like everyone I am wondering which Eli Manning is going to show up in Tampa Bay; the one who looks like a scared high school kid or the one who played like the second coming of well, Peyton Manning a week ago. I know everyone in the national media is writing about and talking about the same thing but it really is the key to this game. If Eli plays like he did against the Patriots the Giants can make the Super Bowl. Really, no joke. I like the Buccaneers in this game, because I trust Jeff Garcia over Eli Manning. Although I would like to see the Giants win, I think bad Eli shows up. Earnest Graham will run well and the defense will step up for Tampa. Buccaneers 30 - 13.

The next round will prove to be just as boring as the Buccaneers will face the Cowboys. The Cowboys are good, really good. There is one thing holding them back. Their coach, Wade Philips, is the football version of Grady Little. You might love the guy, but he is going to make some bad decisions you can’t ignore. Against the Patriots he said that he wanted to force Tom Brady to beat his team. Wow, that sounds like a great idea. I can’t even think of an analogy to that situation. Usually you don’t want to force the other team’s best player (who rises to the challenge 999 times out of 1000) to beat you. It’s kind of like playing Monkey Ball Soccer and putting down your controller with 10 seconds to go, up only 1 goal. Actually, it’s nothing like that. Cowboys beat the Buccaneers 31- 21. In the other divisional game, things get more exciting. Mike Holmgren returns to Green Bay in what might be the game of the playoffs. This will be a really exciting game, in the snow, in Green Bay. It is almost a Christmas Miracle, minus the Christmas part. I like Seattle a lot. I think they can win the NFC. Unfotunately Brett Favre is on the other side of the field, and I like him too. Ultimately it comes down to this, Hasselbeck is good and Favre is great. A tight game, with the Packers winning 17-10.

In the NFC championship only the strong survive. These two teams are the only two teams that have played good football in the NFC all year long. Both have gotten decent quarterback play, both have good defenses. The Cowboys are the better team. The Packers are the more likeable. For a while I thought Seattle would be here and would upset Dallas. I don’t see Green Bay doing that though. Romo is playing out of his mind this year, and have you seen his girlfriend. He is a 4.0 away from completing the perfect semester. The Packers are a young team, take away Favre and you have a lottery pick team. The NFC is boring, the Packers could spice it up, I just don’t think they will. Cowboys 42 – 23. Yawn.

AFC

Now, on to the fun stuff. Although not their dominant selves the AFC was still better. The Patriots are clearly the class of the league, with the Colts not too far behind. Norv Turner could only screw up the talented Chargers for so long, and the Steelers have too much pride to play poorly until at least December. Overall you are seeing the same things, more talent and better coaching in the AFC (minus Norv Turner). First, let me say this about the perfect season, I love it, but they aren’t out of the woods yet. If I hear anyone say that Indy is flying under the radar I am going to start watching the NHL. If you are the defending Superbowl champions, have a 13-3 record, and your quarterback is Peyton Manning you don’t fly anywhere. YOU ARE A TANK AND EVERYONE CAN SEE YOU. If you can’t see these guys coming you don’t watch football. Ok, on with the predictions. In the first round the San Diego Chargers will face the Tennessee Titans. San Diego is pretty talented, and LaDainian Tomlinson will run all over the Titans defense. Congrats to the Titans for making it this far, they are like the #16 seeds in the NCAA basketball tournament. Thanks for playing but buh-bye. This is pretty close to a guarantee, unless Philip Rivers implodes a round early. Chargers 35 - 6. In the other game the trendy-pick Jacksonville Jaguars face the Pittsburgh Steelers. Everyone in the media thinks the Jaguars pose a serious threat to the Patriots, and maybe they do. However, I am banking on the fact that they are already thinking about the Pats. With that kind of mentality they won’t make it out of the Pittsburgh. I don’t like the Steelers, but I do they can win and big over the Jaguars. There is a reason David Garrard isn’t recognized as one of the league’s best quarterbacks, and this game will show why. Big Ben has a big day and so does the defense, Steelers 28 – 14.

In the next round, the Indianapolis Colts will get a real test from the Chargers. Unfortunately for San Diego, the Colts will have all the answers. Indianapolis has slowly developed into a physical team. Mix that in with an always potent offense and a hall-of-fame coach you have a serious contender. Philip Rivers, the Chargers quarterback, is not ready for this. If it is possible to take a step back, he took a leap this season. He is shaky and not the leader I thought he would be. I like the Colts 30 – 16. Now in the real game, the Patriots will host the Pittsburgh Steelers. At this point the Steelers are pumped because they took care of business against the Jaguars. The only problem is, Tom Brady really wanted to play the Jaguars. It is not a good idea to upset Tom Brady. If anyone thinks for a second that the Patriots don’t own Pittsburgh, you’re crazy. America already saw this game. In fact I am picking the same score. Anthony Smith I guarantee you get lit up, Patriots 34-13.

Wow, here we are again. A year later, a year wiser. I remember the day after the AFC championship in 2007. It was freezing, I did a morning run down at the Tufts outdoor track. I cursed Reche Caldwell and dreamed of better days. Those days came. The Patriots were literally four yards away from going to the Superbowl last year. One first down would have sealed the deal. However, sometimes the sacrifices are worth it. If they had won the Superbowl with Reche Caldwell, Troy Brown, and Jabar Gaffney there would be no Randy Moss, no Wes Welker, and certainly no 16-0. The Pats would have continued with the status quo. Woops! The Colts made this bed, now they are going to lay in it. In the re-match everyone wants to see, we get the performance we all want to see. Tom Brady throws five touchdowns, three to Moss. The Pats win in a great game, but not really a close one. Manning, he gives everyone in New England his favorite facial expression. Patriots 38-21.

Superbowl XLII

I think this is all you need to know about NFC teams. The following is a real poll question on coldhardfootballfacts.com. If the NFC Pro Bowl team played the 2007 Patriots in a 10-game series, how many would New England win? Would you believe that 70% thought the Patriots would win 5+ !! What!!@$#!@?? I love the Patriots but that should never happen. The Patriots have a salary cap, the NFC pro-bowl roster does not. The scary thing is, I agree. Normally I would say that it is outrageous, but in reality a majority of the AFC pro-bowl roster is comprised of Patriots. Wow, just had to share that with everyone. So who do I think wins? Come on, New England. They are hands down the greatest team of the modern era, possibly all-time. The Cowboys are a good team, and can play with the Patriots, but I just don’t see them winning. Patriots 31-26. Tom Brady MVP. Hats and t-shirts all around!!!