Yeah, it was ugly.
Honestly, I am embarrassed by my performance last weekend. I never expected for my predicted champion to be out this early. Now what to I do? Well, I guess I could pick the games for this weekend.
First, let me make a few comments about last weekend's debacle of a playoff lineup.
-Miami sucks. So for all of the Baltimore bandwagon fans getting really pumped about their victory over the Dolphins, chill out.
-On that note, Baltimore is pretty good. Their defense is peaking at the right time and the offense is good enough to win on most days. However, I still like the Pats over them any day.
-If Atlanta had stopped Arizona from picking up that freak first down on 3rd and 16, then Matty Ice would have led the winning drive. It almost came true. Maybe next year.
-Arizona is not good. Trust me.
-The Colts had that game but insisted on giving it to the Chargers. It's too bad, because the Colts were actually pretty good.
-San Diego can win it all, but probably won't.
-Go Eagles.
Here are the "NEW" predictions.
-Eagles 21 Giants 15
-Steelers 34 Chargers 14
-Panthers 28 Cardinals 24
-Ravens 24 Titans 17
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Friday, January 2, 2009
Playoff Predictions 2008-2009
Oh hello. I'll just be a second. I have to get a glass of water. The taste of vomit is still in my mouth after watching Brett Favre throw the game away against the Dolphins. That second pick really threw me over the edge.
(pause)
Ahhh, that feels better. Wait, wait, the Chargers came back from a three game deficit and made the playoffs at 8-8? Hold on a second. You mean to tell me that the second most talented team in the league (behind the Cowboys), took half the season off, then decided to care when they realized that their division was a joke? Oh no, throwing up again. Hold on…..
Ok, ok, ok, I think I have it under control now.
That was the 2008 NFL season? Holy crap, it went by fast. It seems like just yesterday we were six minutes into the first game and Tom Brady was upright. Matt Cassel was a backup, Matt Ryan was a doomed rookie, and the Miami Dolphins were hoping to win more than one game. Surprise, the NFL is crazy! It turns out you can't predict anything in this league. Anyone who had the Falcons and Ravens making the playoffs was probably drunk when they came up with that idea.
So, as I do every year, I’ll remind readers of my history. I have been writing a playoff predictions “column” since the 2001-2002 NFL season. In the last seven years I have predicted four Super Bowl champions. If not for a few freak things (like last year’s ridiculous helmet catch by David Tyree of the Giants and Reche Caldwell dropping a sure touchdown against the Colts two years ago) I would have six correct predictions in that span. Out of the last seven years I have predicted the Patriots six times and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers once. I might be a hometown-team-guy, but my hometown-team is pretty good. You do the math.
Like in 2002-2003, I am in a tough spot. The Patriots finished with the best record in their division, but thanks to Brett Favre (again), they are on the outside looking in. However, this year’s Pats won 11 games (instead of nine) and the Dolphins took home the division title (instead of the Jets, ridiculous). (FYI: The Dolphins won only one game last year. Not two, not three, one.) The natural question at this point is: Who’s it going to be? Good question. The last time this happened I went with Tampa over Oakland, and I was right. Maybe this will be my finest hour once again.
Over the years it’s been easy for me to pick the Pats. It’s funny, because even though I don’t think they are the best team this year, I still would have picked them to win it all. I refuse to bet against Bill Belichick at this point. (If you think that the video tape thing was his magical formula, guess what…….you’re an idiot. He proved this year that he can take anybody and turn them in to a top 10 QB in this league. Bill has done it twice now, so maybe, just maybe, he is decent football coach.) Consistency wins playoff games in the NFL, and Belichick is as consistent as they come. However, this year he’s at home on January 2nd, so he isn’t perfect.
Ok, let’s get on with the show. Not much has changed in the league this year. Things looked a little weird at the beginning of the season, as the NFC appeared to have closed the talent/coaching gap. However, a 16 game season has a way of working those things out. Although the NFC has made a few a strides and has produced a higher quality playoff field than last year, the AFC is still better from top to bottom. The Chargers did make the playoffs at 8-8, but they are by far the most talented 8-8 team in league history. (Little Known Chargers FACT #1: they are bunch of babies). I look at the five and six seeds for both conferences and I feel this tells you everything you need to know. In the AFC the Colts and Ravens were 12-4 and 11-5 respectively. In the NFC the Falcons and Eagles (both birds) were 11-5 and 9-6-1 respectively. Records don’t tell the whole story though, it comes down to consistency. I’ll give Falcons credit, they are going to be a force for the next few years and they are a legitimate threat. The thing to remember is that while everyone in the AFC was fighting for their playoff lives (except Brett and the Jets), half of the NFC was imploding. The Bucs tanked, the Bears fell asleep, and I can’t begin to explain what the Cowboys did (although the Redskins might be my favorite disaster of the season). The Colts (on a down year) and Ravens did not sneak in, they fought in. Yeah, the AFC west is terrible, but still better than the NFC west. It’s like off-setting penalties; they cancel each other out. (Little Known Chargers FACT #2: they took half of the season off)
Before I finally predict the this thing like I’m Miss Cleo circa 1999, let me hand out a couple of awards.
Life Time Achievement Award: Eric Mangini, (former) New York Jets Head Coach. Great job Eric, you had a team at 8-3 and successfully finished 9-7. Must be a New York thing, blowing big leads that is.
Best Player You Have Never Heard Of: Brett Favre, New York Jets QB
Wow! Where did this guy come from? Before this year I had never heard of the guy. Apparently he played in Green Bay for a few seasons. He was by far the best player for the Dolphins at the end of this season. (I really hope you are picking up what I am putting down)
Slam Dunk of the Year: The Firing of Rod Marinelli, Detroit Lions Head Coach. I mean, the team went 0-16. I love how ESPN didn’t even talk about him with like six weeks to go. I can imagine someone sitting in a conference room saying, “hey do you think we should lead with a story about Marinelli on the coaching hot seat?” Then someone responds, “yeah, right after we announce that dinosaurs are extinct.”
Trade of the Year: Cowboys trade three draft picks (including a 1st rounder) to Detroit for Roy Williams (WR). Detroit is awful, 98% of the time they make the wrong decision, but somehow they opened a Wonka Bar with the last Golden Ticket. Two things that definitely happened while this trade went down were: 1) Jerry Jones panicked, drank a ton, and then had one of his grandkids come up with this deal using “Franchise Mode” in Madden 09. 2) The Detroit Front office, in complete disarray and surprised that they are offered a trade, had a couple of interns test the deal out using “Franchise Mode” in Madden 09. When the league office approved the deal, it was at that moment, they knew it was legit. You have to love EA Sports, they make everything so easy. I can’t wait till Wall Street 09 comes out, the stock market comes to life with EA Sports, it’s in the game!
Best Former USC Quarterback in 2008: Matt Cassel, New England Patriots. So here is the competition: Carson Palmer, injured. Matt Leinart, soft. John David Booty, an idiot rookie. When you consider that Cassel never started a game in college and two of the aforementioned guys were Heisman Trophy winners, this is a pretty big goof on Peter Carroll’s part. In August Cassel could not make an “NFL throw”, now he’s about to get a fat contract. Well done Matt, you deserve it; we wish you could stick around. Good luck in Detroit.
Best Gag-Job in 2008: The Tennessee Titans on Vince Young. Think about it for a second, then remember the Rose Bowl where he beat the USC Trojans, ok now think about the suicide rumors, ok you should have it figured out now. Vince Young is probably locked in a closet somewhere.
Biggest Joke of 2008: The San Diego Chargers. Ron Burgundy told me all about San Diego once. True Story.
Biggest Loser of 2008: Tom Brady, New England Patriots. He’s not a “loser”, but he definitely lost the most this year. Yeah, he put a ring on Gisele’s finger, but football-wise things have changed. Once viewed as the savior, the best QB in the league, clutch, and a first ballot hall of fame guy, he is now expendable. Today on WEEI in Boston people were calling in and talking about how the Pats should ship Brady off to first bidder. One caller referred to his knee “as Mickey Mouse.” (whatever that means?) Cassel, winner of 11 games and a mirror image of Tom Terrific is the new hotness. I love Cassel, and he is apparently an above-average QB, but don’t forget folks, Tom is money. Time to get sidetracked for a second. Here is what Cassel brings to the table that Brady doesn’t: the ability to run, more meat on his bones, and two non-surgically repaired knees. Tom brings the following: playoff pressure-experience, the ability to throw the deep ball accurately (this takes years to develop, Matt doesn’t have it down yet), the ability to sense the location of the pass-rush (Cassell’s biggest flaw), and three Super Bowl rings (not gonna happen for Cassel, sorry band-wagoners). In the end the Pats will make the best decision for the football team, and that decision will be Tom Brady and his Mickey Mouse knee.
Ok, I’ll make quick work on this now.
NFC
Wild Card Round:
Philadelphia Eagles (6) over Minnesota Vikings (3) 28-13. The fact that Minnesota can’t sell out a playoff game should tell you something. Eagles are lucky to be in the playoffs, but are riding the high of last week’s blowout. Wait till Tavaris Jackson meets Jim Johnson’s defense. I just think experience wins this game and these guys don’t have it.
Atlanta Falcons (5) over Arizona Cardinals (4) 24-21. Arizona too can’t sell out their home playoff game. I think Matty Ice leads the Falcons down the field in the fourth quarter for a miracle road victory.
Divisional Round:
Philadelphia Eagles (6) over NY Giants (1) 20-7. Call me crazy, but I think the Giants lay an egg in this game. I think they are a good team, but I like Eli to make a few good mistakes to make up for last year. Donovan holds on to his lunch just long enough.
Carolina Panthers (2) over Atlanta Falcons (5) 31-24. Love the Falcons, but not two weeks in a row with a rookie QB. Big Game Jake has been waiting for this since losing the Super Bowl to the Pats. Carolina is legit.
NFC Championship:
Carolina Panthers (2) over Philadelphia Eagles (6) 21-0. The dream ends here for Philly. It would have been awesome to see a rematch with the Giants, but this will have to do. Carolina’s clear advantage in the running game makes the difference. Philly can’t do anything right this week.
AFC
Wildcard Round
Miami Dolphins (3) over Baltimore Ravens (6) 17-13. It’s tempting to pick the Ravens, but I think the Dolphins can grind it out. The Ravens play great defense, but it won’t be enough in the face of the wildcat formation. Interestingly enough the Dolphins only win last year came over the Ravens.
Indianapolis Colts (5) over San Diego Chargers (4) 35-17. If the Chargers win this game they are going to win the Super Bowl. I just don’t think they will. Peyton makes it easy for me and takes care of business. LT cries on the sidelines.
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers (2) over Miami Dolphins (3) 28-10. The Steelers are probably the best team in the league. The Dolphins are a worthy feast.
Indianapolis Colts (5) over Tennessee Titans (1) 24-21. The old guard rises up! I think the Colts are better and have been since week seven. Vince Young breaks out of the closet.
AFC Championship
Indianapolis Colts (5) over Pittsburgh Steelers (2) 27-21 [OT]. Miracle touchdown run in overtime shocks the Steelers at home. Revenge for the Colts is sweet, even though they didn’t have to use their golden footed kicker.
Superbowl XLIII
Indianapolis Colts (AFC) over Carolina Panthers (NFC) 28-24. Peyton Manning MVP.
So there you have it folks. This is the only circumstance I have the Colts winning another Super Bowl in the Bill Belichick era of NFL football, so enjoy it Peyton.
(pause)
Ahhh, that feels better. Wait, wait, the Chargers came back from a three game deficit and made the playoffs at 8-8? Hold on a second. You mean to tell me that the second most talented team in the league (behind the Cowboys), took half the season off, then decided to care when they realized that their division was a joke? Oh no, throwing up again. Hold on…..
Ok, ok, ok, I think I have it under control now.
That was the 2008 NFL season? Holy crap, it went by fast. It seems like just yesterday we were six minutes into the first game and Tom Brady was upright. Matt Cassel was a backup, Matt Ryan was a doomed rookie, and the Miami Dolphins were hoping to win more than one game. Surprise, the NFL is crazy! It turns out you can't predict anything in this league. Anyone who had the Falcons and Ravens making the playoffs was probably drunk when they came up with that idea.
So, as I do every year, I’ll remind readers of my history. I have been writing a playoff predictions “column” since the 2001-2002 NFL season. In the last seven years I have predicted four Super Bowl champions. If not for a few freak things (like last year’s ridiculous helmet catch by David Tyree of the Giants and Reche Caldwell dropping a sure touchdown against the Colts two years ago) I would have six correct predictions in that span. Out of the last seven years I have predicted the Patriots six times and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers once. I might be a hometown-team-guy, but my hometown-team is pretty good. You do the math.
Like in 2002-2003, I am in a tough spot. The Patriots finished with the best record in their division, but thanks to Brett Favre (again), they are on the outside looking in. However, this year’s Pats won 11 games (instead of nine) and the Dolphins took home the division title (instead of the Jets, ridiculous). (FYI: The Dolphins won only one game last year. Not two, not three, one.) The natural question at this point is: Who’s it going to be? Good question. The last time this happened I went with Tampa over Oakland, and I was right. Maybe this will be my finest hour once again.
Over the years it’s been easy for me to pick the Pats. It’s funny, because even though I don’t think they are the best team this year, I still would have picked them to win it all. I refuse to bet against Bill Belichick at this point. (If you think that the video tape thing was his magical formula, guess what…….you’re an idiot. He proved this year that he can take anybody and turn them in to a top 10 QB in this league. Bill has done it twice now, so maybe, just maybe, he is decent football coach.) Consistency wins playoff games in the NFL, and Belichick is as consistent as they come. However, this year he’s at home on January 2nd, so he isn’t perfect.
Ok, let’s get on with the show. Not much has changed in the league this year. Things looked a little weird at the beginning of the season, as the NFC appeared to have closed the talent/coaching gap. However, a 16 game season has a way of working those things out. Although the NFC has made a few a strides and has produced a higher quality playoff field than last year, the AFC is still better from top to bottom. The Chargers did make the playoffs at 8-8, but they are by far the most talented 8-8 team in league history. (Little Known Chargers FACT #1: they are bunch of babies). I look at the five and six seeds for both conferences and I feel this tells you everything you need to know. In the AFC the Colts and Ravens were 12-4 and 11-5 respectively. In the NFC the Falcons and Eagles (both birds) were 11-5 and 9-6-1 respectively. Records don’t tell the whole story though, it comes down to consistency. I’ll give Falcons credit, they are going to be a force for the next few years and they are a legitimate threat. The thing to remember is that while everyone in the AFC was fighting for their playoff lives (except Brett and the Jets), half of the NFC was imploding. The Bucs tanked, the Bears fell asleep, and I can’t begin to explain what the Cowboys did (although the Redskins might be my favorite disaster of the season). The Colts (on a down year) and Ravens did not sneak in, they fought in. Yeah, the AFC west is terrible, but still better than the NFC west. It’s like off-setting penalties; they cancel each other out. (Little Known Chargers FACT #2: they took half of the season off)
Before I finally predict the this thing like I’m Miss Cleo circa 1999, let me hand out a couple of awards.
Life Time Achievement Award: Eric Mangini, (former) New York Jets Head Coach. Great job Eric, you had a team at 8-3 and successfully finished 9-7. Must be a New York thing, blowing big leads that is.
Best Player You Have Never Heard Of: Brett Favre, New York Jets QB
Wow! Where did this guy come from? Before this year I had never heard of the guy. Apparently he played in Green Bay for a few seasons. He was by far the best player for the Dolphins at the end of this season. (I really hope you are picking up what I am putting down)
Slam Dunk of the Year: The Firing of Rod Marinelli, Detroit Lions Head Coach. I mean, the team went 0-16. I love how ESPN didn’t even talk about him with like six weeks to go. I can imagine someone sitting in a conference room saying, “hey do you think we should lead with a story about Marinelli on the coaching hot seat?” Then someone responds, “yeah, right after we announce that dinosaurs are extinct.”
Trade of the Year: Cowboys trade three draft picks (including a 1st rounder) to Detroit for Roy Williams (WR). Detroit is awful, 98% of the time they make the wrong decision, but somehow they opened a Wonka Bar with the last Golden Ticket. Two things that definitely happened while this trade went down were: 1) Jerry Jones panicked, drank a ton, and then had one of his grandkids come up with this deal using “Franchise Mode” in Madden 09. 2) The Detroit Front office, in complete disarray and surprised that they are offered a trade, had a couple of interns test the deal out using “Franchise Mode” in Madden 09. When the league office approved the deal, it was at that moment, they knew it was legit. You have to love EA Sports, they make everything so easy. I can’t wait till Wall Street 09 comes out, the stock market comes to life with EA Sports, it’s in the game!
Best Former USC Quarterback in 2008: Matt Cassel, New England Patriots. So here is the competition: Carson Palmer, injured. Matt Leinart, soft. John David Booty, an idiot rookie. When you consider that Cassel never started a game in college and two of the aforementioned guys were Heisman Trophy winners, this is a pretty big goof on Peter Carroll’s part. In August Cassel could not make an “NFL throw”, now he’s about to get a fat contract. Well done Matt, you deserve it; we wish you could stick around. Good luck in Detroit.
Best Gag-Job in 2008: The Tennessee Titans on Vince Young. Think about it for a second, then remember the Rose Bowl where he beat the USC Trojans, ok now think about the suicide rumors, ok you should have it figured out now. Vince Young is probably locked in a closet somewhere.
Biggest Joke of 2008: The San Diego Chargers. Ron Burgundy told me all about San Diego once. True Story.
Biggest Loser of 2008: Tom Brady, New England Patriots. He’s not a “loser”, but he definitely lost the most this year. Yeah, he put a ring on Gisele’s finger, but football-wise things have changed. Once viewed as the savior, the best QB in the league, clutch, and a first ballot hall of fame guy, he is now expendable. Today on WEEI in Boston people were calling in and talking about how the Pats should ship Brady off to first bidder. One caller referred to his knee “as Mickey Mouse.” (whatever that means?) Cassel, winner of 11 games and a mirror image of Tom Terrific is the new hotness. I love Cassel, and he is apparently an above-average QB, but don’t forget folks, Tom is money. Time to get sidetracked for a second. Here is what Cassel brings to the table that Brady doesn’t: the ability to run, more meat on his bones, and two non-surgically repaired knees. Tom brings the following: playoff pressure-experience, the ability to throw the deep ball accurately (this takes years to develop, Matt doesn’t have it down yet), the ability to sense the location of the pass-rush (Cassell’s biggest flaw), and three Super Bowl rings (not gonna happen for Cassel, sorry band-wagoners). In the end the Pats will make the best decision for the football team, and that decision will be Tom Brady and his Mickey Mouse knee.
Ok, I’ll make quick work on this now.
NFC
Wild Card Round:
Philadelphia Eagles (6) over Minnesota Vikings (3) 28-13. The fact that Minnesota can’t sell out a playoff game should tell you something. Eagles are lucky to be in the playoffs, but are riding the high of last week’s blowout. Wait till Tavaris Jackson meets Jim Johnson’s defense. I just think experience wins this game and these guys don’t have it.
Atlanta Falcons (5) over Arizona Cardinals (4) 24-21. Arizona too can’t sell out their home playoff game. I think Matty Ice leads the Falcons down the field in the fourth quarter for a miracle road victory.
Divisional Round:
Philadelphia Eagles (6) over NY Giants (1) 20-7. Call me crazy, but I think the Giants lay an egg in this game. I think they are a good team, but I like Eli to make a few good mistakes to make up for last year. Donovan holds on to his lunch just long enough.
Carolina Panthers (2) over Atlanta Falcons (5) 31-24. Love the Falcons, but not two weeks in a row with a rookie QB. Big Game Jake has been waiting for this since losing the Super Bowl to the Pats. Carolina is legit.
NFC Championship:
Carolina Panthers (2) over Philadelphia Eagles (6) 21-0. The dream ends here for Philly. It would have been awesome to see a rematch with the Giants, but this will have to do. Carolina’s clear advantage in the running game makes the difference. Philly can’t do anything right this week.
AFC
Wildcard Round
Miami Dolphins (3) over Baltimore Ravens (6) 17-13. It’s tempting to pick the Ravens, but I think the Dolphins can grind it out. The Ravens play great defense, but it won’t be enough in the face of the wildcat formation. Interestingly enough the Dolphins only win last year came over the Ravens.
Indianapolis Colts (5) over San Diego Chargers (4) 35-17. If the Chargers win this game they are going to win the Super Bowl. I just don’t think they will. Peyton makes it easy for me and takes care of business. LT cries on the sidelines.
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers (2) over Miami Dolphins (3) 28-10. The Steelers are probably the best team in the league. The Dolphins are a worthy feast.
Indianapolis Colts (5) over Tennessee Titans (1) 24-21. The old guard rises up! I think the Colts are better and have been since week seven. Vince Young breaks out of the closet.
AFC Championship
Indianapolis Colts (5) over Pittsburgh Steelers (2) 27-21 [OT]. Miracle touchdown run in overtime shocks the Steelers at home. Revenge for the Colts is sweet, even though they didn’t have to use their golden footed kicker.
Superbowl XLIII
Indianapolis Colts (AFC) over Carolina Panthers (NFC) 28-24. Peyton Manning MVP.
So there you have it folks. This is the only circumstance I have the Colts winning another Super Bowl in the Bill Belichick era of NFL football, so enjoy it Peyton.
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